This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Resistance at $120K?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) upswing has gathered pace, as indicated by the “negative dealer gamma buildup” and IBIT’s bull flag breakout. Bull momentum looks strong, evidenced by the 14-day RSI topping 70 and the MACD histogram producing higher bars above the zero line—no reason to worry for bulls, or is it?
With prices in uncharted territory, identifying resistance becomes difficult, and so we look to the options market for clues. On Deribit, the $120,000 strike call is the most popular option with an open interest of $2.37 billion and could be the next key level to watch.
The Coinbase premium shifted to negative level early today, suggesting weaker demand in the stateside market alongside an overnight decline in the cumulative perpetual futures open interest on offshore exchanges. Both factors call for caution on the part of the bulls.
Meanwhile, the hourly chart’s RSI requires attention, as a potential bearish divergence may emerge, signaling a pause in the uptrend and a possible correction.
- AI’s take: The market being in uncharted territory makes it vulnerable to a pullback despite the overall positive sentiment.
- Resistance: $120K
- Support: $113,666 (the 23.6% Fib of the upswing from June low), $119,965 (the May high)
Ether: Bulls push through supply zone
Ether (ETH) has finally managed to clear the supply zone at around $2,800, which capped upside in May and June. An upswing in spot volumes backs the breakout, and coupled with the fresh bullish signal from the Guppy multiple moving average system, suggests potential for a continued move higher, beyond $3,066, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the December to April downtrend. With prices firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, alongside an RSI above 70 and a rising MACD, pullbacks, if any, are likely to be shallow and well-supported at around $2,600.
- AI’s take: Ether’s breakout above the $2,800 supply zone suggests a potential shift in market sentiment and a bullish continuation.
- Resistance: $3,066, $3,400, $3,525
- Support: $2,880, $2,600, $2,370
Solana: Dual breakout
SOL’s (SOL) price rally to a high of $166 triggered an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout and marked a crossover into the bull territory above the Ichimoku cloud. That’s dual breakout! The measured move method applied to the inverse H&S breakout suggests a potential rally to $200. On the way higher, prices may encounter resistance between $180 and $190, characterized by intraday highs from May. On the downside, $145 is key support, which, if lost, could embolden bears.
- AI’s take: The dual breakout signals strong bullish confirmation, offering bulls a compelling case to chase upside. Prudent traders should still manage risk with stop-loss orders, and broader market conditions.
- Resistance: $180-$190 range, $200.
- Support: $150 (the 100-day SMA), $145 and $125.
XRP: Strongest bull momentum since Jan
XRP (XRP) has risen to $2,58, the highest since May 14, with the 14-day RSI crossing above 70 for the first time since January to suggest the strongest bullish momentum in six months. The rising MACD histogram also paints a bullish picture, supporting a potential break above resistance at $2.65 (the May high). Following this, the focus would shift to $3.00 and $3.39 (the yearly high). XRP’s perpetual futures open interest has risen to a fresh multi-month high of 833 million XRP, supporting the rally.
- AI’s take: XRP’s market points to significant bullish strength.
- Resistance: $2.65, $3.00, $3.39.
- Support: $2.20, $1.90, $1.60.