By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin’s (BTC) flirt with a record high $124,000 on Thursday was followed by a drop that led to it closing last weekend’s CME gap at $117,600 after hotter-than-expected PPI inflation data and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s apparent flip-flop on bitcoin purchases for a strategic reserve.
The gap occurs because CME hours for BTC futures don’t match bitcoin’s 24/7 trading. When the futures market is closed over the weekend, bitcoin’s movements can create a discontinuity in prices on the CME chart. While filling the gap is a recurring pattern in market behavior, there’s not guarantee it will take place.
Bitcoin has now set four all-time highs in 2025. Importantly, the magnitude of pullbacks following these peaks has been shrinking. After it hit $109,000 in January, BTC fell 30% to $76,000 by April. In May, the $112,000 high was followed by a 12% drop in June. July’s $123,000 peak led to a 9% decline. Most recently, August’s $124,000 high has so far seen only a 7% percent pullback, though we’re only one day in.
Looking ahead, Friday’s U.S. retail sales report is forecast at 0.7% month-over-month, which would mark the strongest reading since March. A stronger-than-expected number could further undermine expectations for a September rate cut.
Further out, attention turns to the end of August when $12 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire on Deribit. The majority of open call options are concentrated between the $120,000 and $124,000 strike prices, suggesting that if bitcoin trades near these levels, it would align with the positioning of many derivatives traders. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
- Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
- Macro
- Aug. 15, 3 p.m.: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the war in Ukraine.
- Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%
- GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- Aug. 15, 4 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases June GDP YoY growth data.
- GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 4.7 vs. Prev. 2.67%
- Aug. 18, 6 p.m.: The Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador releases July producer price inflation data.
- PPI YoY Prev. 1.29%
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- SoSoValue DAO is voting to allocate 5 million SOSO tokens for a Researcher Ecosystem Fund aimed at boosting top-tier crypto research through competitions and incentives, improving content quality, transparency and SOSO’s utility. Voting ends Aug. 18.
- Uniswap DAO is voting to allocate $540,000 in UNI over six months to as many as 15 top delegates, with up to $6,000 a month based on voting activity, community engagement, proposal authorship and holding 1,000+ UNI. Voting ends Aug. 18
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
- Unlocks
- Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.33% of its circulating supply worth $41.84 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $18.12 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $18.94 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $49.95 million.
- Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.
- Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $57.59 million.
- Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $27.55 million.
- Token Launches
- Aug. 15: PublicAI (PUBLIC) launches on Bitget, Binance Alpha, KuCoin and LBank.
- Aug. 15: Pepecoin (PEP) launches on AscendEX.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.
- Day 4 of 7: Ethereum NYC (New York)
- Day 2 of 2: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
- Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
- Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
- Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole)
- Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market drop in the past 24 hours sparked around $1 billion worth of liquidations, with the majority occurring on ETH trading pairs, according to Coinglass data.
- Ether is trading back at $4,630 while a number of altcoins like TIA, CRV and OP all lost more than 7%.
- One asset, however, stood out: AERO rose 4.5% despite relentless waves of selling pressure and liquidations.
- AERO is the native token of decentralized exchange Aerodrome, which recently benefited from integration with Coinbase, allowing the exchange’s customer base to trade directly on the DEX via the Coinbase app.
- Trading volume on Aerodrome jumped as a result, with $1.1 billion worth of crypto changing hands to mark the DEX’s largest day since February, according to DefiLlama.
- Aerodrome is the largest native part of the Base ecosystem, with $612 million in total value locked (TVL).
- The only other protocols with a higher totals are Morpho and Aave, both of which are distributed across multiple blockchains while Aerodrome is on Base alone.
Derivatives Positioning
- Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues remains elevated, with bitcoin (BTC) sitting at $32.5 billion, just shy of its all-time high. Bitcoin OI is led by Binance ($13.8 billion) and Bybit ($9.3 billion).
- The elevated open interest is supported by steady gains in BTC three-month annualized basis, currently 8%-9% across all exchanges, according to Velo data. Compared with fourth-quarter 2024 levels of 15%, there is still room to grow.
- In options, implied volatility (IV) across different option maturities is upward sloping (contango), with near-term IV low at around 20% , Velo data show. The line rises toward 50% for maturities in mid 2026, a sign of increasing uncertainty further out.
- Looking at the past day’s flows for puts vs calls, the ratio is 50:50, implying no extreme directional bias at the moment.
- Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues are muted at around an annualized 5%-7%, pulling back from the elevated levels seen in the run up to bitcoin’s record high on Thursday.
- This pattern suggests that the rally was largely spot driven, with an influx of shorts helping offset long demand. With funding now relatively low, there is room for fresh leveraged longs to enter the market, potentially adding momentum to the next move.
- Coinglass data shows $960 million in 24 hour liquidations, skewed 85% towards longs. ETH ($342 million), BTC ($162 million) and others ($116 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $117,091 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of further price drops.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $118,739.67 (24hrs: -1.67%)
- ETH is up 1.9% at $4,622.44 (24hrs: -1.58%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.33% at 4,257.98 (24hrs: -2.78%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 3.05%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0082% (8.9976% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.37% at 97.89
- Gold futures are up 0.16% at $3,388.50
- Silver futures are down 0.52% at $37.87
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.71% at 43,378.31
- Hang Seng closed down 0.98% at 25,270.07
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,181.53
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.42% at 5,457.44
- DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 44,911.26
- S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,468.54
- Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 21,710.67
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.28% at 27,915.99
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.16% at 2,653.40
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.2 bps at 4.291%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,493.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.2% at 23,883.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.64% at 45,283.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.4% (-0.42%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03901 (1.5%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 908 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $58.40
- Total fees: 4.33 BTC / $519,718
- CME Futures Open Interest: 140,870 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 35.7 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 10.08%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin dominance recently fell below the key historical level of 60%.
- In the past, such drops have often preceded significant altcoin rallies. However, given the current lack of a strong catalyst for a full-fledged altcoin season, the key question is the potential severity of the drop.
- The current level suggests that a selective or minor ‘alt season’ is underway. It does not yet imply a major, market-wide shift in the way previous cycles have.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $372.94 (-4.35%), unchanged in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $324.89 (-0.65%), +0.11% at $325.25
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $139.23 (-9.1%), -1.61% at $136.99
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.57 (+0.81%), -0.25% at $28.50
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $74.63 (+9.75%), +1.73% at $75.99
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.75 (-0.69%), -0.13% at $15.73
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.25 (+5.69%), -1.14% at $12.11
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.84 (-0.11%), -0.61% at $13.75
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-0.2%), +0.3% at $9.98
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.97 (+5.76%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.13 (-1.24%), unchanged in pre-market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.85 (-1.79%), +8.01% at $29
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $23.49 (-0.13%), -0.17% at $23.45
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $230.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.97 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $639.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.27 million
Source: Farside Investors
Chart of the Day
- The total value locked (TVL) on yield-trading platform Pendle has surged past the $8 billion mark, representing a roughly 30% increase this month and positioning it as the ninth largest protocol by TVL.
- The majority of the growth has taken place on the Ethereum blockchain.
- A key factor driving growth is its close relationship with Ethena’s stablecoin. Some 68% of Pendle’s TVL is tied to USDe and sUSDe, making the protocol a direct proxy for the growth of Ethena’s ecosystem and a bet on the continued expansion of high-yield, stablecoin-based strategies in the market.
While You Were Sleeping
- Altcoin Season Could Begin in September as Bitcoin’s Grip on Crypto Market Weakens: Coinbase Institutional (CoinDesk): Investor rotation into altcoins could accelerate in September, fueled by declining bitcoin dominance, better liquidity for alternative tokens and improving risk appetite, Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong said.
- Circle to Offer 10 Million Class A Shares at $130 Each (CoinDesk): The stablecoin issuer is selling 2 million shares in a secondary offering, while insiders are offloading the other 8 million at over four times the price of the June IPO.
- Hong Kong Regulator Tightens Custody Standards for Licensed Crypto Exchanges (CoinDesk): The SFC set minimum standards for senior management responsibility, cold wallet operations, third-party wallet solutions and real-time threat monitoring after finding cyber and asset-protection weaknesses at some licensed platforms.
- Crypto Group Backed by Trump Sons Hunts for Bitcoin Companies in Asia (Financial Times): U.S.-based miner American Bitcoin, co-founded by Eric Trump, is reportedly pursuing listed firms in Japan and Hong Kong to convert into bitcoin-treasury vehicles, seeking to spark demand through stock-market exposure.
- China’s Economy Slows Broadly Even as Exports Keep Rising (The New York Times): China’s statistics bureau linked July’s slowdown in retail sales, factory output and fixed-asset investment primarily to escalating trade frictions, which its chief economist characterized as protectionism and unilateralism.
- Japan’s Economy Records Modest Growth Despite Trade Uncertainty (The Wall Street Journal): Second-quarter GDP rose 0.3%, but economists warn automakers’ prolonged absorption of U.S. tariff costs could squeeze profits, curb wage growth and dent household spending.
In the Ether
