Crypto markets pushed higher on Monday as traders have shifted focus from geopolitical anxieties to crypto-related institutional developments ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting.
Bitcoin BTC has risen 3.1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading for $108,600, only a couple of thousand dollars below its all-time record. It certainly wasn’t alone in its ascension. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — is up 4.3% in the same period of time, buoyed by strong performances from XRP and chainlink LINK, which both notched 6-7% gains, and most other tokens rising at least 3%.
A check at traditional markets shows that risk appetite has returned after last week’s jitters on Israel and Iran launching missiles. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes bounced 0.9% and 1.4%, while safe haven gold declined 1.5%.
Crypto stocks also joined the surge. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) closed the day 7.7% and 13% in the green. Among bitcoin miners, Bitdeer (BTDR) and Hut 8 (HUT) gained 6.9% and 5.6% respectively. Remarkably, one of the only equities in the red was Strategy (MSTR), which lost almost 0.2%, while rival bitcoin treasury companies Metaplanet rose 25% on the Japanese stock market.
Positive crypto-related news added further fuel to today’s rally: JPMorgan has filed a trademark application for a product that seeks to offer digital asset services such as trading, exchange, payment services and issuance. Meanwhile, asset manager Purpose is set to launch its spot XRP exchange-traded fund in Canada as momentum for altcoin-focused ETFs grows.
When altcoin season?
While today’s altcoin outperformance may have inspired some traders’ hope for an imminent alt season, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard poured cold water on such expectations.
It’s still bitcoin that’s leading the market, he said, with strength often tracing back to the largest crypto’s performance.
“BTC has mostly served as a trigger for altcoins,” Søndergaard. “Some alts also do well. BTC breaks an ATH? The market likes that.” Some profits from BTC’s rise to fresh record high may have trickled down to other cryptos, while some sectors such as DeFi have enjoyed short-term bursts of outperformance.
“These have, however, not been prolonged runs for alts, and looking at the grand scheme of things, most alts have been bleeding for some time,” he said. The focus is still very much on BTC.”
Bitcoin’s strong rebound from Friday’s low could bode well for the crypto market.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the sentiment index Fear and Greed Index dropped into “Fear” territory last week, while Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume showed aggressive selling.
“This behavior, combined with a spike in liquidations, resembles past capitulation-style setups that often mark local bottoms,” the analysts said. “If BTC can hold the $102,000-$103,000 zone, it may suggest that selling pressure is being absorbed and that the market could be primed for recovery.”
Eyes on the Fed and Powell
From a macro lens, attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Investors overwhelmingly expect the Fed to keep benchmark rates steady this week and the following meeting in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants will focus on Powell’s remarks about clues on how policymakers navigate inflation and job market pressures.
“Powell’s tone, not the rate decision, will drive volatility,” digital asset analytics firm Swissblock said in a Monday note. “Expect whiplash trading across commodities, yields and risk assets.”