Crypto markets had been on a nice bull run the the final quarter of 2024, but the trend of rising government bond yields across the globe appears to have become to strong to ignore.
Considered the benchmark that sets the standard across the world, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.70% as of Wednesday, nearing a mulit-year high and now up more than 100 basis points increase since the Federal Reserve first cut its fed funds rate in September.
The action in the U.K. has been even more extreme, with the 30-year Gilt yield on Wednesday rising to 5.35%, its highest level since 1998. It’s now ahead by 105 basis points since the Fed’s first rate cut in September.
Large jumps in interest rates aren’t limited to the U.S. and U.K., as Germany, Italy and Japan — to name three — have experienced similar action. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield, in fact, has risen to 1.18% — a relatively tiny number, but its highest level in nearly 15 years.
Rising yields through much of the last several months didn’t appear to impede crypto price action, where bitcoin and a number of other digital assets rose to record or multi-year highs in early-mid December. The price action since is a different story, with bitcoin — for instance — down more than 10% from its record above $108,000 set just three weeks ago and several other majors lower by even larger amounts.
There’s always an exception and this time around it’s China, where yields are falling sharply on deflation worries. According to an X post by The Kobeissi Letter, China has been experiencing its longest period of deflation since 1999.