Stellar (XLM) continues to gain traction in the cryptocurrency space, particularly in cross-border payments and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. With Stellar’s active accounts growing from 7.2 million in 2023 to 9.5 million by May 2025, and the network adding approximately 5,000 new wallet addresses daily, the question arises: what would happen if XLM reaches the ambitious $10 price target?
Step 1: Analyzing the Stellar XLM Rich List Percentiles
Based on current on-chain data and wallet distribution analysis, here’s what we know about Stellar’s holder structure:
- Total XLM Wallets: Stellar has approximately 9.5 million active accounts as of May 2025, though like most cryptocurrencies, many users maintain multiple wallets for trading, custody, and diversification purposes.
- Concentration Concerns: Nearly 80% of XLM remains concentrated in 10 wallets, highlighting significant wealth concentration similar to other major cryptocurrencies.
- Active vs. Inactive Wallets: Following typical cryptocurrency patterns, an estimated 60-70% of wallets may be inactive, custodial, or hold negligible amounts, meaning roughly 3-4 million wallets represent active, meaningful holdings.
XLM Wealth Distribution Analysis
Using on-chain data analysis similar to platforms like StellarExpert, here’s the estimated distribution of XLM holdings across different percentile tiers:
| Percentage | # Accounts | Balance (XLM) | Current Value @ $0.26 | Value @ $10 | Potential Gain |
| 0.01% | 950 | 8,500,000+ | $2,210,000+ | $85,000,000+ | $82,790,000+ |
| 0.1% | 9,500 | 425,000+ | $110,500+ | $4,250,000+ | $4,139,500+ |
| 0.2% | 19,000 | 285,000+ | $74,100+ | $2,850,000+ | $2,775,900+ |
| 0.5% | 47,500 | 125,000+ | $32,500+ | $1,250,000+ | $1,217,500+ |
| 1% | 95,000 | 75,000+ | $19,500+ | $750,000+ | $730,500+ |
| 2% | 190,000 | 38,500+ | $10,010+ | $385,000+ | $374,990+ |
| 3% | 285,000 | 25,000+ | $6,500+ | $250,000+ | $243,500+ |
| 4% | 380,000 | 18,750+ | $4,875+ | $187,500+ | $182,625+ |
| 5% | 475,000 | 15,000+ | $3,900+ | $150,000+ | $146,100+ |
| 10% | 950,000 | 4,250+ | $1,105+ | $42,500+ | $41,395+ |
Note: These figures are estimated based on typical cryptocurrency distribution patterns and available on-chain data. Actual thresholds may vary.
Step 2: Impact on Top 10 XLM Holders
The most dramatic impact would be felt by the largest XLM holders. Given that the top 10 richest addresses hold 56.41% of all available supply, with nearly 80% concentrated in the top 10 wallets, here’s the potential windfall:
Top 0.01% Holders: These whale accounts, holding 8.5 million+ XLM each, would see their holdings skyrocket from approximately $2.2 million to over $85 million – a gain exceeding $82 million per account.
Top 0.1% Tier: With holdings of 425,000+ XLM, these accounts would see values rise from around $110,500 to $4.25 million, representing gains of over $4 million each.
Step 3: What Would Drive XLM to $10?
For XLM to reach $10 (a 3,746% increase from current levels), several catalysts would need to align:
Real-World Asset (RWA) Expansion
Stellar’s RWA assets have risen 84% in 2025, positioning the network as a leader in tokenizing real-world assets. Continued growth in this sector could drive massive demand.
Cross-Border Payment Adoption
Stellar’s focus on facilitating cross-border transactions and remittances could see widespread institutional adoption, particularly as traditional financial systems seek blockchain integration.
Market Cap Implications
At $10 per XLM, Stellar’s market capitalization would reach approximately $300-400 billion (based on circulating supply), placing it among the top 3 cryptocurrencies globally.
Step 4: Risk Considerations and Market Dynamics
Concentration Risk
The extreme concentration of XLM holdings presents both opportunities and risks:
- Upside: Large holders have strong incentives for long-term price appreciation
- Downside: Major sell-offs from whale wallets could create significant volatility
Market Conditions
Analysts predict XLM could trade between $0.258 and $0.394 by 2025, with an average price forecast of $0.316, suggesting more modest near-term expectations than the $10 target.
Network Growth
The consistent addition of 5,000 new wallets daily indicates growing adoption, but reaching $10 would require exponential acceleration in both user growth and transaction volume.
Conclusion: The $10 XLM Scenario
If XLM were to reach $10, the transformation would be unprecedented:
- Top-tier holders would become multi-millionaires, with some whale accounts gaining over $80 million
- Mid-tier investors (top 1-5%) would see six-figure gains
- Even modest holders in the top 10% would see gains exceeding $40,000
However, this scenario requires:
- Massive institutional adoption of Stellar’s payment infrastructure
- Significant expansion in RWA tokenization
- Favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrency adoption
- Sustained bull market conditions across the crypto space
While the mathematical potential is clear, investors should remember that reaching $10 is considered a long-term possibility rather than a near-term expectation. The concentration of holdings among major wallets also means that the market could experience significant volatility on the path to such ambitious price targets.
As always, cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk, and potential investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.