Will he stay, or will he go? For Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the latter appears imminent. Now bettors on Polymarket are debating on when exactly he’ll announce his resignation.
While Trudeau resignation contracts aren’t anything new, there are two with low six-figures of volume attached to them asking if he’ll be gone by February or April, and another from December asking if opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.
The interest in the Canadian Prime Minister’s fate popped up on Monday after scoops from two of Canada’s largest newspapers put his resignation date to be either Monday or before Wednesday.
The Toronto Star says the resignation is coming as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which had it first, said the announcement would come before a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Polymarket bettors are skeptical on whether the announcement could come earlier. One contract, which is betting on Monday has just over $45,000 in volume, and only gives a 24% chance the week will start with Trudeau signing off.
Another, asking if the Prime Minister will step down by Wednesday, gives it a 72% chance but that specific contract has a much smaller volume at around $10,000. Finally, a third, asking if he’ll be gone by Friday puts the chance of that happening at 80%.
While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail both have their sources that say a resignation is imminent, Reuters, which it says spoke to someone different, says Trudeau hasn’t yet made up his mind.
Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, gives the Prime Minister a 22% approval rating. Polling aggregators show that if an election were to be held today, Trudeau’s Liberals would be decimated, only winning 46 seats while the Conservatives would take 225 giving them a majority in Canada’s Parliament.
Elsewhere on Polymarket, bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada joins the United States as its 51st state by July – an idea that started as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts.