Crypto-focused prediction market Polymarket is facing a fresh dose of criticism this week in relation to a market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit before July.
More than $160 million worth of crypto was bet on the market, with the initial outcome of “yes” being disputed by the validators behind UMA, the oracle protocol that determines the results.
The price of “yes” has now plummeted to $0.04 from $0.19, giving an implied probability of outcome at just 4%. The “yes” voters are striking back, claiming that Zelenskyy did indeed wear a suit at the NATO summit on June 24 and that there could be foul play by UMA validators to swing the decision.
The validators are holders of UMA protocol tokens, who get to vote on the veracity of the real-world data that’s encoded in the protocol’s oracle. In theory, a large-enough swathe of token-holders could manipulate a result to their own choosing.
This is not the first time there has been a divide between Polymarket and UMA communities. In March another Ukrainian-themed market was disputed amid claims of manipulation from large holders of UMA.
“We all know the whales are trying to rig the UMA vote on the Zelensky suit market,” X user Atlantislq wrote. “But that doesn’t mean we should stay silent. This is a critical moment Polymarket claims to care about truth and decentralization so let’s hold them to it.”
AI chat bot Grok took the side of “yes” voters, saying that “Zelenskyy wore a suit in June 2025.”
On the other side, popular menswear influencer and writer who goes by the moniker “derek guy” bet $3.6 million on the market resolving as “no.” He stands to make $72,000 if the bet is successful.
A final resolution on the market will be made at 00:00 UTC on July 8.